PROLOGUE
If you’re a baseball fan, particularly a Cardinals or Braves fan, you might relate to this story. I, myself, was born and raised in St. Louis and bleed Cardinals red; it’s a birthright. Adam Wainwright, the protagonist of this particular piece, will go down as one of the greatest Cardinals in St. Louis history; in my humble opinion, he could be even more.
I wrote this story during Spring Training 2018 and released it the day of his first start this spring. Since then, Wainwright started the season on the disabled list with a hamstring strain. He was activated in April, then placed on the disabled list again later that month with elbow inflammation. He was activated in May, made one start, then was placed on the disabled list again two days later. He returned from the disabled list yet again as a starter in early September.
THE CASE FOR THE ACE TO CLOSE HIS CAREER AS THE CARDINALS’ CLOSER
By Aaron Unterreiner
Harken back to 2006. Harken back, particularly, to the Cardinals’ improbable 2006 postseason. Can you see it, in your mind’s eye? It’s not difficult picturing Carlos Beltran’s knees buckling at that perfect 12-to-6 curveball to win the National League pennant. It’s not difficult picturing Brandon Inge on the receiving end of the Good Morning, Good Afternoon, and Good Night of a young closer’s all-slider salutation to win the World Series just eight days later.
For good measure, the Cardinals’ rookie was the last pitcher standing against the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series, as well. He earned four saves that postseason, three that regular season, and those seven saves are the only saves of Adam Wainwright’s brilliant 12-year career in St. Louis. If it weren’t for Wainwright repairing the Cardinals’ rickety cart from the back of the bullpen in ’06, an otherwise uninspiring ballclub that limped into the playoffs on the final day of that regular season most likely would not have miraculously won the franchise’s 10th world championship.
It’s not nostalgia, however, that makes me clamor for Wainwright to reprise his role as the Cardinals closer; it’s perspicacity.
Consider the case of Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz:
Smoltz spent the first 12 years of his career as a starting pitcher. He was a four-time all-star and a Cy Young Award winner; he had a 157-113 record as a starter his first dozen years in the league, including a 43-23 record and a 3.04 earned-run average over 90 starts and an average of 203.1 innings pitched in his age-30-33 seasons. Despite the strong numbers, Smoltz’s injuries mounted; multiple trips to the disabled list in 1998 and ’99 – his age-31-32 seasons – and a disabled season in 2000 due to Tommy John surgery led the Atlanta Braves organization to rethink its strategy regarding its workhorse.
Smoltz had pitched more than 200 innings in seven of his 12 seasons. At age 34, he was coming off a lost season due to a significant injury to his throwing arm. With fellow Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine still anchoring the rotation, the Braves thought to relieve some of Smoltz’s stress by trying his hand as a reliever.
“I’m open to anything at this point,” Smoltz said then in an interview with The New York Times. “The last three years of my career haven’t gone the way I thought they would go. I’ll let the offseason take care of itself. They know my desire to win. Just a chance to pitch in the postseason again after what I went through last year was my goal.”
As it turned out, the workhorse was a warhorse, and it wasn’t Smoltz’s time to be turned out to pasture. From 2001 to 2004, Smoltz became arguably the most dominant closer in the game, picking up 154 saves with a 2.62 era during his age-34-37 seasons, including – ahem! – 45 saves and a 1.12 era his age-36 season.
Wainwright is entering his age-36 season.
“One thing that is a pleasure is to see a closer with good control,” said Leo Mazzone, Atlanta’s longtime pitching coach. “Smoltz is coming in, throwing bullets, throwing a nasty slider, a nasty split, but he has good control. He hasn’t changed a thing, except that his fastball has picked up a couple of miles per hour because he’s only pitching one or two innings. He’s a great postseason pitcher. John could always elevate his game. In the ninth inning, it’s time to elevate your game; that kind of fits right into his mentality.”
Sound familiar? Remind you of anybody else’s mentality?
Without question, Wainwright’s quality of pitches has taken an extreme hit, but the veteran’s control and temperament have not wavered. If a couple of mph could be restored to his four-seam fastball, if he could drop his least effective pitches (changeup, cutter) from his arsenal and is left to focus on his curveball and sinker as his go-to offspeed pitches, is it so hard to imagine Wainwright as Mazzone’s Smoltz from the early aughts?
Wainwright, with 10 seasons as a full-time starter, has a 146-81 career record, just 11 wins shy of the respective Hall of Famer in two less seasons. Since his age-30 season in 2012, Wainwright is 80-46 while pitching over 1,000 innings. Over the last two years, while battling injuries, his era has hovered around 5.00. Wainwright, who made his spring debut this season on March 1, 2018, had offseason surgery on his right elbow to clean up a cartilage flap that was believed to cause an in-season bone bruise and sapped speed from his fastball and break from his breaking pitches.
There are no Madduxes and Glavines in the Cardinals’ current rotation, but there are cups in the cupboard. Carlos Martinez is Wainwright’s heir apparent as ace of the staff; Michael Wacha has youth and experience on his side; Miles Mikolas will get his opportunity to prove he’s more than just a placeholder; while Luke Weaver is the first man up on the Cardinals’ rookie roster of young arms. The Cardinals could consider going to a six-man rotation, as well, following a fledgling trend in Major League Baseball. Alex Reyes is lying in wait; Jack Flaherty, too. There’s a host of promising prospects – Hudson, Gant, Fernandez, Hicks, Gomber, Woodford, Seijas, Jones, Oviedo, Helsey, Greene – that would love to follow Weaver’s first man up as next man up. A six-man rotation would allow the Cardinals to push their youth movement while keeping tabs on their young pitchers’ innings counters.
Wainwright, meanwhile, doesn’t need more innings. He’s been the workhorse; he has nothing left to prove there. Smoltz, as the exemplary example for this argument’s sake, ended his career as the only pitcher in MLB history with at least 200 wins and 150 saves. Wainwright has an opportunity to reshape his career – potentially a Hall of Fame career – by rebranding himself as a closer, keeping the Cardinals competitive, extending his MLB lifespan, and solidifying his place on a Cooperstown-like list with the likes of Dennis Eckersley (197 wins/390 saves), Goose Gossage (124/310), and Rollie Fingers (114/341).
Wainwright is not Smoltz; his numbers won’t approach Eckersley, Gossage, and Fingers, either. His best-case scenario: He turns in a Smoltz-like stretch of seasons after converting to closer and finishes his career with 150 wins and 150 saves; only two pitchers in MLB history have accomplished that feat. More realistically and certainly within Wainwright’s reach, he becomes the 16th pitcher in MLB history to finish his career with at least 100 wins and at least 100 saves.
The price to pay for Wainwright’s conversion is a piece of history and the potential for future postseasons.
“I pushed through a lot of things that I think made me the pitcher that I was,” Smoltz said in a 2013 interview with The Virginian-Pilot. “I don’t regret any of it. There were times you question your sanity and you go, ‘Why are you doing this?’ … I just went after it; there was no half-stepping it. I never played it safe.
“I call it ‘rally mode.’ I just said I have to rally, I’m going to dig myself out of this hole. And I did. My point is, I didn’t sit or wait till I felt better or play it safe. I believed I was good enough and that I could learn from everything I went through.”
Smoltz rallied for four more all-star appearances in his 21-year career, his last season spent wearing the Birds on the Bat in 2009. He was a first-ballot Hall of Fame selection in 2015.
“As a closer, John Smoltz has been nothing short of sensational,” said his general manager at the time, John Schuerholz.
I believe in Adam Wainwright. At age 36 and entering his 13th season in the bigs (and final year of his current contract), Wainwright, I believe, can pitch effectively beyond this season – just not as a starter. I believe Wainwright and the Cardinals are best served with a career change and the sea change to follow. Wainwright’s most valuable contribution to the Cardinals this season and moving forward is anchoring the team’s bullpen once again as its closer. I believe, like Schuerholz said of Smoltz, that Wainwright, too, can be nothing short of sensational as a closer.
Flash forward to 2020 … 14 years after Adam Wainwright snapped off his greatest curveball ever to freeze one of the greatest postseason hitters ever, 14 years after he jumped into Yadier Molina’s arms as World Series champions … and arguably the greatest Cardinals battery ever has the chance to write poetic history – to retire together, as the closer and the catcher, effectively sealing their Hall of Fame careers, all while wearing the Birds on the Bat.
Now is the perfect time for perspicacity.
Now is not the time to play it safe; now is the time for rally mode.